ADEC 7530 Measuring Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles

This course will focus on the measurement and analysis of business cycles with a special emphasis on business forecasting. Leading indicators are used as forecasting tools to predict when economies move from expansion to recessions and vice versa. Taking an applied empirical approach, we will cover data and tools used for analysis of short term conditions. While business cycle analysis is concerned with short-term fluctuations, understanding the long-term growth path of an economy is important to interpret short-term movements. Applications of trend estimation methods will also be covered. We will study cycles in developing economies which have experienced long periods of continuous growth. Our focus is on important economic indicators and a discussion of data issues such as price indexes, deflation, and seasonal adjustment. How can these indicators be applied and interpreted to understand short term trends in the economy? How can they assist in economic and business decision making?